Michel Houellebecq predicted it, or something like it.
I have noted before how uncannily his Soumission – perhaps the greatest novel by perhaps France’s greatest living novelist – predicted on its publication in January 2015, the same day as the Charlie Hebdo massacre, a grim future for France.
In the novel, Houellebecq surmises how the mainstream parties of the right and left in France conspire, in the second round of a presidential election, to keep Marine Le Pen from power by putting in an Islamic Front candidate, who proceeds to Islamify the country.
Houellebecq’s message was not one of partisanship towards what is now called the Rassemblement National.
It was to show that bien-pensants in France will do anything, including destroy French values, to keep the hard, or nationalist, right from power.
To the horror of the mainstream parties, the RN won the first round of the legislative elections on June 30.
Their opponents designed a tactical vote to stop them winning a majority in the second round on July 7, and in that limited aim they were successful.
Although the RN remained the biggest single party in the Assemblée nationale, its total of seats (with those of its new ally, Eric Ciotti) are dwarfed by the 193 of the Nouveau Front Populaire, which has been demanding the right to supply the prime minister and design the government programme, and to have the president of Assemblée nationale.
The Macronistes have a mere 166 seats and thus no real power at all, except that they have the president, and he can delay the apparently unforeseen horror of a neo-Leninist government.
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One would, therefore, need a heart of stone not to howl with laughter at the predicament the bien-pensants now find themselves in.
The loudest mouth on the hard left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, talks of a 90% top tax rate, the expropriation of large legacies, and a massive increase in public spending.
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France is already breaking EU spending rules, but what the hard left wants to do would rip up the rules altogether. In fear of such people coming into power there are endless stories in the British press about the well-off from France seeking sanctuary in the United Kingdom to escape the Mélenchon terror.
Were that to happen it would be to the great advantage of the British economy, but an utter disaster for the French, which could lose much of its productive and revenue base.
Two days before the second round of the French elections, the UK acquired its own left-of-centre government, its first for 14 years.
Refugees from any French socialist coalition will notice little similarity between the regimes. Indeed, Sir Keir Starmer got elected partly because he booted out Labour’s own Mélenchon soundalike, Jeremy Corbyn, and some of the Marxists, anti-semites and other extremists who followed him.
The new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, is desperately seeking ways not to raise taxes in order to keep public confidence. As a result the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, has told the National Health Service that there is simply no more money.
Corbyn was unelectable in Britain: the French political class now seems determined to disable its own weapon of choice, a Corbyn-style socialist coalition, from getting anywhere near the power it feels it has the right to exercise.
‘Be careful what you wish for’ does not come into it. As in so many political crises, France has entered its deckchairs- on-the-Titanic phase.
There has been a rebranding of political parties: Mr Macron’s Renaissance is now Ensemble Pour la République. Les Républicains are split in two – Mr Ciotti’s group being one faction and another, calling itself La Droite Républicaine and led by Laurent Wauquiez, committing itself only to stopping leftists getting anywhere near power.
It was down to them teaming up with the Macronistes that Mr Macron’s ally, Yaël Braun-Pivet, was elected as President of the Assemblée nationale, beating the communist André Chassaigne.
This caused outrage on the left, as they thought the job was theirs by right. Mathilde Panot from La France Insoumise called it ‘an anti-democratic coup’.
The hypocrisy of that comment was unbelievable, given the part Ms Panot’s co-religionists had played in keeping out of power the party with the largest popular vote in the first round, the RN.
It is all indicative of what a mess France is in, a mess exacerbated rather than resolved by the snap election.
At time of writing (July 22) there is no agreement within the left-wing coalition of who should be prime minister [Editor’s note: The NFP presented a candidate on July 23]. Gabriel Attal, having resigned, has stayed on as caretaker, and it is believed this is how things will stay until after the Paris Olympics.
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This is not an ideal time for France to be in the spotlight of the world. Some coalition of centrists, formed in desperation, seems the most likely outcome, not least because only an unlikely level of co-operation between the hard left and the hard right could remove it from office.
Of course, that might happen by accident: indeed, it seems anything might happen. And there could be another fight: Article 10 of the Assemblée nationale by-laws demands all parties be given roles, such as chairing committees, pro-rata according to their number of seats: but some Macronistes are trying to prevent this applying to the RN.
Again, one does not need to endorse the RN to see how shabby this looks, and how it demeans proper French democratic values.
The RN, and Ms Le Pen, can only be the long-term beneficiaries of such monkey business. If I were President Macron, once I had had my fortnight in the sun at the Olympics I would resign, and let someone else sort out the mess.
It is hard to believe that anything other than more grief is in store for him, and for France, as things stand.
Do you agree or disagree with Simon Heffer? Let us know via letters@connexionfrance.com
