Comment: Trump re-election poses challenge for EU and France

What does the re-election of Donald Trump mean for France and the EU?

The Connexion put the question to Romuald Sciora, who is in charge of the US section at independent French international relations think tank Iris.

Mr Sciora, a Franco-American who lives in New York, said it is important, firstly, to draw a distinction between the good personal relations between Donald Trump and President Emmanuel Macron, and the likely effects of his presidency on France and the EU, which Mr Sciora believes to be negative.

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He said: “There has always been a good relationship between Macron and Trump. Macron is someone who likes to try to win people over, and when he found himself faced with Trump as President of the United States he did everything he could to get him on his side, especially as they were opposite in terms of politics. And it worked. 

“There was a kind of understanding between them, you could see it when Macron invited Trump for July 14 and when he visited the White House in turn.

“Trump has always had a rather particular relationship with the heads of state. 

“There are on one hand the heads of state of ‘little ****hole countries’ as he puts it, that he’s disdainful of, and the authoritarian presidents who he respects and considers equals, such as Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un, and then heads of state of important, secondary, allied countries.

“With the latter, it all depends on the personal rapport he has with them – and with Macron he’s always had a good relationship.”

However, Mr Trump’s politics do not bode well for the EU, Mr Sciora said.

“The 2024 Trump is very different from the 2016 Trump – he’s become the incarnation of everything that he represents to his electorate – that’s to say a politician of the most radical right associated with the ultra conservatives, who has a real agenda set out for the US – ‘Project 2025’ – and who has a somewhat more precise vision than before of what he hopes to achieve at the international level, notably with the nomination of [Florida senator] Marco Rubio as Secretary of State [foreign affairs minister].

“Relations with Europeans will no doubt be a bit more tense than before, including with France. 

“The Macron-Trump relationship should, in itself, pick up again on warm terms, but the international situation is very different from 2016. 

“Today we’ve got the war in Ukraine, that Trump will do all he can to stop as soon as possible, of course to the detriment of Putin and Ukraine – a vision diametrically opposed to Macron’s, so on this issue, to name but one, there is likely to be friction between the two heads of state.

“Next, there’s the situation in the near-east. Trump is close to Netanyahu and will support even more strongly Israel’s policies with regard to Gaza and Lebanon than a Biden administration would have done, and there again there will no doubt be tensions between Trump and Macron.

“Where there could be a meeting of minds is over Iran – Trump hates wars, not out of love of peace but because he’s a businessman and wars are bad for business. A high-intensity war between Israel and Iran in which the US would get involved could cause an oil crisis and an international financial crisis which would have repercussions for the US.

“As soon as he takes office [he will officially be inaugurated on January 20], Trump will have in his sights the 2026 mid-term elections [for the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate] and will want to keep control of Congress, he will want to avoid anything that could have bad effects on domestic politics.”

Read more: US election, what are the big issues for Americans in France?

Mr Sciora said that on balance it seems Ukraine “has lost” the war [note, we spoke to him before the latest escalations], and even if Kamala Harris had won she would have likely put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate an agreement by autumn next year. With Trump, it will “probably all be over by the summer”.

He said that with Trump, who would cut off funding, Ukraine would have less support and be in a weaker negotiating position. 

“Even if the war is a defeat for Ukraine, and thus for the west, he won’t bear the burden. He’ll say it was lost due to Joe Biden, and he, Trump, will have saved the world from a world war.”

Russia will doubtless keep the Crimean Peninsula, and parts of eastern Ukraine, he said.

“It will, to some extent, be a victory for Putin, but not total victory, as he originally wanted the whole of Ukraine,” Mr Sciora said. “In return, Trump will probably offer some reconstruction aid to Ukraine through US companies and will support Ukraine’s entry into the EU, but not Nato – which will benefit him as it will destabilise the EU (as Ukraine isn’t ready) and it will divide the Europeans more politically, which is good for the US.”

Mr Sciora did not think Trump would seek to leave Nato, as it brings in too much money to the US military-industrial complex when other Nato countries buy American arms. 

However, he will put pressure on other Nato countries to contribute more financially and will distance the US more from it, with the risk that in the longer term, if another Republican president follows him, the US could leave.

It is true, Mr Sciora added, that several Nato countries, including France, have long said they will increase their contributions, but have not, and several are not up to date with their payments – however, Trump, reasoning like a businessman, fails to realise to what extent, despite this, the existence of Nato, and the fact the US heads it, gives the US unprecedented global influence.

In terms of international trade, the new US administration will take a “very aggressive” attitude, much more so than in the first Trump presidency, because of Trump’s very strong position politically – towards China, but also the EU.

“There is likely to be more tax on European products – as far as France goes, wine and cheese, of course, also luxury products. 

“It will also affect some raw materials, used in car manufacturing or elsewhere. 

“There will be maximum pressure on all possible sectors of European and French industry, and Macron will not be able to do anything about it. 

“The election of Trump is very bad news for the European economy, as it is in terms of defence for any European countries that are not in the EU. Putin is no danger to the EU, but he is a danger to Georgia and Moldova.”

Mr Trump’s presidency could also have a destabilising effect on western democracies in general, as “what happens in the US has repercussions, and this wave of ultra-conservatism is going to affect Europe”.

Read more: ‘Trump’s victory paves way for far-right victory in France’

“In two years, Trump’s American will look more like Orban’s Hungary than the America of Kennedy or Obama, and in Europe we’ll continue to see a rise in populism, inspired by him.”

It is liable to further embolden France’s own far-right RN, he added.

“2027 is still far off and we don’t know if Marine Le Pen will stand, but the triumph of Trump will give legitimacy to all the new European populisms, which are already well-entrenched in countries such as Hungary and Italy – as well as to the RN in France.”

Read more: French prosecutors call to make Le Pen ineligible in 2027 election

President Macron’s recent calls for more European unity and for closer defence partnerships are “sincere,” Mr Sciora said, but he has made similar statements for years, with little effect, partly because of his weakened position domestically, and also the weakened relationship with Germany, which tends not to listen to him. 

Things could change depending on the outcome of the elections in Germany at the start of 2025.

Asked about the importance of Trump’s close relationship with ‘Big Tech’, including Elon Musk’s Tesla, Mr Sciora said the situation is very new. 

Until recently, he said, tech companies, such as Apple, were seen as progressive, promising to ‘emancipate’ their users, but with the rise of firms such as Tesla, and of AI, the Biden administration had sought greater regulation. 

Mr Musk, notably, had then turned from supporting Biden to Trump, claiming regulation and taxation was anti-entrepreneurial.

“Musk and Trump are basically a duo, now, it’s more than just campaign support, and Musk has enormous wealth and power.

“We will see more tech giants getting closer to Trump and forming a common front faced with foreign competition. 

“The Trump administration will facilitate the development across the planet of these big companies and it will be much harder for Europe to resist. It will try, but it will not be easy.”