Good news on cost of living in France as inflation set to fall in 2025
Projected figures suggest that the rate will drop and stabilise
People in France are likely to feel that their money is going further in 2025 as inflation is predicted to drop
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Figures suggest that inflation in France is set to drop in 2025 in contrast to the high-inflation period recently seen. This should result in lower price / cost increases this year.
The figures show inflation rates in France from 1987 to 2029, with those for 2025 to 2029 still only projections of course, and suggest that the rate in 2025 will be lower and more stable moving forward than the difficult times seen since 2022.
The figures are calculated based on a defined product basket of goods, including common food items and supermarket shopping, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities and raw materials (e.g. gas, petrol, oil), as well as national fees and taxes.
The rates shown (compared to the previous year) are:
2021: 2.07%
2022: 5.9%
2023: 5.66%
2024: 2.31%
2025 (projection): 1.64%
2026 (projection): 1.77%
These figures loosely tally with those cited in the economic forecast for France by the European Commission Economy and Finance department.
This shows inflation in France at 2.4% for 2024, and 1.9% for 2025 (and 1.8% for 2026).
Overall, the forecast concludes that inflation is expected to stabilise below 2% in 2025. It says that inflation dropped in 2024 to reach 1.5% in October, due to both “declining energy and food prices and a strong slowdown in services prices”.
Inflation overall is expected to increase slightly from these “temporary low levels of September and October 2024” due to base effects and increases in food prices, but the overall rate will be lower year-on-year, it says.
Electricity prices are expected to fall, pushing the rate down further, the Commission states. Inflation rates in 2025 and 2026 are expected to remain below the ECB (European Central Bank) target, it states.
Electricity bills have been predicted to fall by as much as 14% from February 2025, once new regulated prices are set.
Read also: Good news on electricity prices for millions in France
This is in large part due to a significant drop in the market price of electricity aided by an increase in France’s nuclear production which, according to nuclear electricity producer EDF, was 19.7% higher in November 2024 than in November 2023.
The fall is expected even after the tariff shield (bouclier tarifaire) ends in the same month.
This natural drop in the market price was initially expected to be offset by a new tax presented by the former government of Michel Barnier, however this measure has been withdrawn.
The falling price will mean that in February 2025, one kilowatt hour should cost around €0.215 net, compared with €0.2516 net in the last days of 2024.
Read more: When are EDF’s ‘red days’ which see prices rise for Tempo contract users?
Read also: 10 changes for everyday life in France in 2025
The average French household reportedly consumes 5,681kWh of electricity a year, amounting to a current annual bill of €1,429.34.
