Covid-19 in France: Why new cases despite confinement?

France has been under confinement for five weeks, but new cases continue to appear. Analysis from news service FranceInfo has presented some key reasons why this could be happening.

Confinement does not mean total lockdown

People are still allowed to leave the house for legitimate reasons, as mentioned on the government form.

While these outings - such as food shopping, walking the dog, or exercise - are permitted under the confinement laws, they do still expose people to the virus.

This is especially true when food shopping, for example, and bringing packaging into the house. US studies have shown that the virus can survive on plastic surfaces for up to three days; two days on a stainless steel sink; 24 hours on a cardboard box; and four hours on a copper wire.

Some people are continuing to work

Some workers have no choice but to physically go to their workplace. A new study by Odoxa-Adviso Partners from April 9 found that 25% of French workers are continuing to go to work on a near-daily basis despite confinement.

This includes healthcare staff such as doctors, nurses and pharmacists; but also anyone who works in any of the shops and services that are still open, such as supermarket staff, retail workers, delivery drivers, mechanics and other key roles.

Using public transport increases the risk of becoming infected with the virus, leading Prime Minister Edouard Philippe to suggest that he will “probably” make it compulsory to wear masks on public transport after confinement is lifted on May 11.

The number of tests has risen sharply

The number of officially confirmed cases - those included in the daily summary from the director general of health Jérôme Salomon - has risen in part because more people are being tested.

In mid-March, Professor Salomon said that France had capacity for 2,500 PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests per day. Only vulnerable and at-risk people with severe symptoms were tested.

Now, the government has said that the country will test around 70,000 people per day between now and mid-May, with a wider remit of people who may be tested.

On Sunday April 19, health minister Olivier Véran said: “If you have symptoms and you want to know if you are ill, or if you have had close contact with someone who you know is infected, you can - you should - have a test.”

The virus can spread even among people who have no symptoms

People without symptoms may be less meticulous about taking precautions, such as washing hands regularly, coughing into your elbow and not your hands; and keeping a minimum distance of a metre away from others.

Epidemiologist Pascal Crépey told FranceInfo: “People that really contribute to the epidemic, are people who are pre-symptomatic, who are going to develop symptoms; and ill people.”

It can take between three to five days for symptoms to appear on average - and in some people, it can take as many as 14 days or more, meaning that many people could be contagious without realising it.

National health research institute Inserm (l'Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale) is currently conducting a study to gather data on who among the population may be infected by Covid-19, but will not develop symptoms.

The study will then see if these people do indeed become “super spreaders” - spreading the virus to many people without realising it - and for how long they are contagious.

New data from China suggests that “asymptomatic carriers” do play a role in spreading the virus. It is also not clear if everyone who has previously had the virus becomes immune to it; nor for how long any immunity might last.