Deadline looms, EU refers to ‘cliff edge’ exit

It has a 17-page document on ‘preparedness’ and 68 other documents on different economic and other sectors, saying it is preparing for all eventualities, including a ‘no deal or cliff-edge scenario’ with no transition period and “no specific arrangement in place for EU citizens in the UK or UK citizens in the EU”.

The UK’s new Brexit Minister Dominic Raab told a TV interviewer he believes the deadline can be reached and said the EU is “irresponsible” to use such language.

The reason, however, is that all the negotiations on continuing ‘citizens’ rights’ in this unique situation of people ceasing to be EU citizens have been based on the deal and, as there was no agreement to ‘ring-fence’ the rights part, Britons in the EU could be left ‘in limbo’ should there be no deal.

Speaking on behalf of EU colleagues, Aus­trian EU Minister Gernot Blümel said the biggest problem is the Northern Irish border and there has been no ‘substantial progress’.

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said another issue is agreeing on outlines of the future UK/EU relationship (on trade and security etc) which is to be attached to the deal as a statement of political objectives for further talks. He said a UK ‘white paper’ allows for ‘constructive discussion’ but questions remain on how ‘workable’ its ideas are.

In the event of ‘no deal’, EU citizens in the UK may be in a clearer situation than Britons in the EU. This is because the UK has put its controversial new ‘settled status’ for them into national law (however this does not cover rights such as exported benefits or EU ‘pension aggregation’).

Unless there is an EU-wide decision on how Britons should be treated after a ‘cliff-edge’ exit, their situation will vary state by state – in which case information given to Connexion by the Interior Ministry (above) is reassuring.

The white paper also offers positive points for Britons seeking to move after a transition period (existing expats are covered by the draft deal). It says the UK wants to maintain UK pension uprating and aggregation and pensioners’ healthcare abroad for those who move to the EU after Brexit.

However it gives mixed messages as it also reiterates wishes to end free movement and prioritises ‘the brightest and the best’. (The UK wants to reduce net immigration to tens of thousands; new figures show that net EU immigration last year was 101,000 compared to 227,000 for people from outside the EU).

The paper also reiterates the UK’s support for ‘onward free movement’ rights for existing British expats in EU countries, such as Britons in France who may want to live or work elsewhere in the future.

Theoretically the Brexit talks could be extended beyond March 29, 2019, avoiding (or putting off) a ‘cliff-edge’, but the UK has not, so far, asked for this and it would require unanimous agreement by the other states.

Some expert commentators say the bar for this would be set very high, such as a change of government after a general election, or another referendum. EU Parliament elections in May 2019 also mean an extension may be complicated.

In either case, there would then be a risk that long-term (more than 15 years) British expats in the EU would miss out again unless the franchise was changed for the referendum as compared to last time or a bill on ending the 15-year limit, going (slowly) through parliament, is speeded up. Asked about this the Cabinet Office said they ‘cannot speculate on theoretical scenarios’.

At present the bill is not expected to move to its next ‘committee’ phase of debate until September or October, the MP responsible for it, Glyn Davies, said. It would then go to the Lords and is not likely to become law until early next year, he told Connexion.

Connexion notes that estimates for numbers of Britons in the EU and France have been dropping – the UK refers to 800,000 in its recent white paper on the future EU/UK relationship, as opposed to 1.2m, a United Nations estimate often used in debates on Brexit.

Recently the UK’s Office of National Sta­tistics suggested 900,000.

The latter, like a figure of 150,000 Britons in France supplied by France’s Insee, is based on census data.

However Insee told Connexion that in censuses people can only give one nationality so those with double nationality are often not included in statistics for ‘Britons’.

For more about this and general Brexit updates such as on the Fouchet/Shindler case and a translation of the list of documents for a residency card see our Brexit website page at: connexionfrance.com/French-news/Brexit