France rests on the brink of political chaos with the government facing two motions of no confidence (motions de censure) tonight.
Unless there is a drastic change in the position of either the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance or far-right Rassemblement National (RN), prime minister Michel Barnier will be ousted by the motion brought forward by the left.
Mr Barnier and his government will be forced to resign immediately. They will assume the role of a ‘caretaker government’ until a new one is appointed, severely limiting their power and ability to govern.
Limitations including introducing legislation to parliament, effectively blocking further votes on the 2025 budget until there is a new government in place.
The motions were filed after Mr Barnier announced the use of controversial article 49.3 to push through part of the social security bill without a vote from MPs in the Assemblée nationale.
As he did so, he acknowledged it would lead to a vote of no confidence, but he believed it to be in the best interests of the country after talks on the budget broke down.
There has only been one successful motion de censure in the history of the Fifth Republic - in October 1962.
It saw Georges Pompidou forced to resign as prime minister and new legislative elections called, which his party subsequently won, returning him to the role with a new cabinet.
Why is the vote happening?
A brief recap on France’s political chaos over the past few months shows why Mr Barnier is facing the likelihood of being the shortest-serving prime minister of the Fifth Republic.
He was appointed after this July’s legislative elections returned a divided Assemblée nationale, with MPs from the left (under the NFP), centre and right (Macron’s party, his allies, and Les Républicains) and the far-right (under the RN) occupying roughly a third of the chamber each.
It took months for Mr Barnier’s appointment to be announced, in part due to an Olympic ‘truce’ during the Games and then stifled attempts by MPs to reach a formal coalition that could reach a majority – 289 MPs – in the chamber.
President Emmanuel Macron eventually appointed Mr Barnier to the role.
The right-wing politician heads a minority government made up of MPs from centrist parties and the right Les Républicains, however it is still significantly short of a majority in the chamber.
The left fiercely opposed this announcement, believing as the group with the largest single return of MPs it should have been approached first to form a government – its candidate for the position of PM, senior civil servant Lucie Castets, was rejected outright by Mr Macron.
The far-right were equally unhappy, but said they would give Mr Barnier time to see how his cabinet governed, including what proposals it would place in the 2025 budget.
Vote of no confidence loomed since appointment
The make-up of the Assemblée following the legislative elections meant it was always obvious that withdrawal of this implicit support from the RN would cripple the government.
Read more: Why far right support is key to whether Michel Barnier stays as French PM
If the RN voted against bills alongside the left – who have been in line to oppose almost everything – the government would not be able to muster enough support to pass legislation through the chamber.
More worryingly, if the two main opposing parties united in a motion de censure, they could topple the government with ease.
The left brought forward a vote of no confidence against Mr Barnier by itself in October, which failed as it lacked the support of the far-right.
In October, Mr Barnier’s government announced its 2025 budget, looking to save €60 billion through tax rises and spending cuts. The budget was criticised by both the left and right.
Passage of both the general and the social security budgets through the Assemblée nationale and Senate saw several additional changes as the government lacked majority support to keep the bill in its original structure.
Weeks of negotiations over the budget led to an impasse, with the left staunchly against most of the bill – and guaranteed to vote against it at all opportunities – and the far-right still unhappy with many of the measures within it.
Mr Barnier had been preparing for weeks to use article 49.3 – a controversial measure that allows certain bills including budgetary measures to be passed without a vote in parliament – to bypass this blockage and ensure a budget was in place.
Read more: Explainer: what is France’s article 49.3?
The use of this opens the government up to a vote of no confidence, with the left announcing they would file one at each use of the article by Mr Barnier.
Previously, this was of little concern, as the left could not muster enough votes – 289, a majority of MPs – alone to topple Mr Barnier, with the measure simply frustrating government attempts to pass the budget.
Votes to take place tonight
However, the RN announced on Monday (December 2) it would vote in favour of toppling the government through any vote of no confidence, including those brought forward by the left.
It said the government had failed to address a series of ‘red lines’ to maintain its support (or lack of opposition to) the budget.
Read more: Far-right ‘red lines’ to support the 2025 budget
Michel Barnier took the floor on Monday afternoon and announced he would use article 49.3 to pass a part of the social security budget bill without a vote, acknowledging this would lead to a motion of no confidence against his government.
He said it was in the national interest of the country to allow the vote to happen so the political impasse could be resolved, and that he had been unable to end the blockage through political discussions.
The left and far-right quickly filed their respective motions de censure.
It was somewhat of a surprise that the RN filed its own motion, as previously it had only mentioned its intention to support the left.
The Assemblée nationale will convene from 16:00 today to discuss the motions, with votes set to take place around 20:00.
Is the vote guaranteed to topple the government?
It seems extremely likely that the motion brought by the left will pass, however it is not a foregone conclusion.
For the left’s motion to pass, the RN must stick to its word that it will vote for it.
There is obviously huge tensions between the groups, and the text of the left’s motion openly criticises the RN for propping up the current government through an informal alliance.
The far-right’s Marine Le Pen in turn took aim at the left’s motion for the attack, particularly the description of the RN’s political position as ‘the vilest obsessions’.
At the same time, parties on the left have not said they would support the far-right motion, and are relying on RN MPs to vote in line with them.
There is a chance the groups only back their own motions, leaving the government surviving on a technicality that each individual motion did not return a majority of MPs.
President Macron, currently on a government visit to Saudi Arabia, believes “there is a path to avoid the vote of no confidence,” namely by the far-right not supporting the motion of the left.
“The RN cannot vote for a motion that insults its own voters,” he said, quoted by FranceInfo, adding his priority was the stability of the country and passage of the budget.
He also criticised the Socialist Party “a government party [one of the three main parties to have governed France under the Fifth Republic] who are going to have fun voting with two extreme parties. What a loss of credibility.”
As of midday today, far-right MPs are still publicly saying they will vote in favour of the left’s motion. It is only if they go against their word that the government remains.
Even if the government remains standing after tonight, issues around the budget have not been resolved, it still cannot be passed by a vote unless the RN shifts its position or the government backtracks further.
Both of these positions seem unlikely, meaning the government will likely have recourse to use article 49.3 again in the coming days if it is still in place, leaving it open to the same situation once more.
What happens if the government falls?
The successful vote of no confidence in 1962 led then-president Charles de Gaulle to dismiss the Assemblée nationale and call new elections to resolve the conflict.
However, Mr Macron only called legislative elections in June this year, and must wait 12 months before doing so again, meaning the political make-up of the divided chamber cannot be changed for another seven months.
It means any new prime minister appointed – the appointment is in the hands of the president – must be able to bring the chamber together.
Mr Macron’s options include reappointing Mr Barnier (who would be all but doomed to face another vote of no confidence immediately after), appoint a technocratic government headed by civil servants, or attempt to form a new governing coalition.
Read more: What will happen to President Macron is Michel Barnier resigns?
The head of Mr Macron’s centrist party Ensemble pour la république and former prime minister Gabriel Attal confirmed he would launch talks with other parties if Mr Barnier is toppled to form an emergency ‘republican’ government
This would not represent an official coalition but a temporary pact to see the parties govern together on the common ground between them until new elections for the chamber could be held, and to ensure a budget for next year is passed.
This would include all parties in the chamber except the far-left La France Insoumise and far-right RN which are seen as ’anti-republican’ and too extreme in their views to be included.
However, it is unclear whether the Communist, Socialist, and Green parties, who make up the NFP alongside the far-left group, would be willing to walk away from the current coalition.
Previous attempts to draw them away this summer to form such a ‘republican’ government failed, and it is likely they would insist on a left-wing prime minister after their desired appointment of Miss Castets was spurned earlier this year, potentially alienating MPs on the right.
