French far right: poll downturn and three election scenarios

France faces a fork in the road of its political direction between left and right in the second round of its parliamentary election on Sunday (July 8), however polls suggest that a sweeping far-right win now seems more unlikely. 

We recap the situation in the lead up to the vote and what scenarios may follow.

The Rassemblement National (RN) took the lead in the first round of voting on June 30, with 37 of its candidates securing automatic election - including the party’s co-leader Marine Le Pen - forgoing the second round of voting in their constituencies.

Never before has the far-right won the first round of a French parliamentary election.

A total of 76 candidates won their seats outright in the first round, including 32 for the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) and two for Ensemble !.

The remaining 501 seats will be won and lost in the second round of voting on Sunday. A group needs 289 seats to hold an absolute majority in the lower house of parliament.

Read more: Election first round: see how people voted in your area of France

What is happening now?

The majority of candidates for the round two vote belong to one of three electoral groups: 

• The Union Nationale - an alliance of right-wing parties led by the far-right Rassemblement national, 

• The Nouveau Front Populaire - an alliance of left-wing parties led by the Parti Socialist and the far-left La France Insoumise 

• Ensemble ! - an alliance of centrist parties led by President Macron’s Renaissance party

The majority of the 501 remaining seats would have been three-way battles or votes triangulaires between these groups, however, the Nouveau Front Populaire and Ensemble ! have agreed to withdraw their candidate if they are in third place.

It means that in most seats now it is a two-way battle in Sunday’s vote.

This electoral truce is known as the ‘front republicain’ and the aim is to strengthen the chances of the remaining candidate against the RN candidate by not diluting the opposition vote. While for the NFP, the truce is ‘absolute’, for Ensemble ! it is ‘relative’. 

“If the opposing candidate has republican values, then we will withdraw,” Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (Ensemble !) told TF1 on Monday, July 1. 

Read more: French election update: political twists, turns and quotes day by day

Recent poll shows RN downturn

The RN had hoped that it would win a clear majority in parliament - a notion supported by early polls. 

However, several polls since July 1, including an Ifop poll for BFMTV and a Toluna poll for RTL (see above) suggest that this is becoming more unlikely. 

While a relative majority for the RN is still possible, an alliance of the NLP and Ensemble ! could forge a coalition but this would likely be fragile.

What could happen in the second round of voting?

A sweeping RN win: if the RN secures more than half (289) of the seats in parliament, it would essentially mean that the only legislative agenda that could easily pass through the chamber would be that of the RN.

In this case, President Macron will have to offer Mr Bardella the role of prime minister. Mr Macron has already said that he will not resign.

Such a government would have to include many ministers from or approved by the RN.

A relative RN win: if the RN is the biggest party in parliament and can draw on support from allies, it could form a stable coalition.

Mr Macron could offer Mr Bardella the role of prime minister in this case. However, Mr Bardella has stated that he will only accept the role if he has more than 220 MPs on his side.

Such a government would have to include many ministers from or approved by the RN and its coalition allies.

No clear winner: if no party or alliance gets a majority, then Mr Macron will have to appoint ministers from a coalition government. 

This could mean a government based on a fragile alliance that requires cross-party support - much like it does at present. 

Mr Macron would have to decide between drawing support from ministers from the NLP and RN, as it is highly unlikely that a government could rely on both groups.

Why is this election happening?

Mr Macron’s government did not have an absolute majority of seats in parliament and relied on a coalition that frequently needed cross-party support to pass legislation. 

One example of this was the controversial 2024 Immigration law, which passed the chamber thanks to piecemeal support from the opposition parties, including the RN and the traditional-right Les Républicains party.

President Macron called the parliamentary election in France following the sweeping victory of the RN in the European parliamentary elections on June 9, which he called “a political fact that cannot be ignored”.