French government set to face motion of no confidence

Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a motion of no confidence in parliament after triggering the controversial article 49.3 to force through part of the 2025 budget without a vote. 

Use of article 49.3, which allows a bill concerning financial or social security issues to pass without a vote by MPs, gives opposition members in the chamber 48 hours to file a motion de censure (vote of no confidence) against the government.

A successful vote of no confidence, which requires the support of a majority of MPs (289), would force Mr Barnier’s government to resign.

The leader of the Communists in parliament, André Chassaigne, confirmed to French media that four left-wing groups were “in the process of tabling the motion of censure”, on Monday afternoon.

Cross-party support for measure

Left-wing MPs from La France Insoumise previously stated they would file a vote of no confidence after any use of article 49.3 with most if not all left-wing MPs backing the vote. 

The far-right Rassemblement National (RN) announced it would support the measure. 

The RN said it would look to file its own motion but that it will also vote in favour of any motion brought forward by the left.

The motion de censure will succeed if it is indeed supported by both the RN and La France Insoumise.

Why is the RN likely to support a vote of no confidence?

The RN is not officially backing the government as part of a coalition but its support has been fundamental. 

The RN is the largest single party in parliament and was hoping to use the threat of supporting any vote of no confidence from the left would allow it to influence the government’s bills including the 2025 budget. 

Read more: Why far right support is key to whether Michel Barnier stays as French PM

However, the RN vehemently opposed the budget brought forward by Mr Barnier, and introduced a series of ‘red lines’ within the bill that prevented them from voting in favour of it. 

These included taxes on electricity consumption, medical aid schemes for undocumented migrants on low pay, and the end of some medical reimbursements, all of which were altered by Barnier’s government in an attempt to regain support. 

Further red lines including on pension indexing were seemingly not addressed, leading RN leaders Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella to confirm RN MPs will join the left in voting against the government. 

Read more: Euro and French stocks fall as Michel Barnier’s government faces collapse

What happens next? 

Without parliamentary support for its 2025 budget, the government would have to use article 49.3 several times to pass the bill in full. 

Opponents could therefore use a motion de censure every time this happens.

The left has indeed confirmed it will file a motion each time until the government falls. 

However, a vote of no confidence may well topple the government within the next 48 hours.

If this happens President Emmanuel Macron will need to find a new prime minister.

His options will be limited, however, as MPs are unlikely to agree on any coalition – as was seen in the summer – and it seems mathematically impossible for any group to sustain a parliamentary majority and prevent future votes of no confidence. 

Mr Macron may try to form a technocratic government made up of civil servants but this would fail to address a fractured Assemblée nationale that disagrees greatly on the budget. 

There will undoubtedly be calls for Mr Macron to resign however this is not a constitutional requirement.