What next as French government faces motion of no confidence?
Prime Minister Michel Barnier likely to be deposed as both far-right and left bring forward motions, although tensions grow between opposition groups
A successful motion will lead to Mr Barnier being deposed as prime minister.
Victor Velter / Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock
Prime Minister Michel Barnier's minority government is to face two motions of no confidence in parliament as rival parties react to his use of article 49.3 to force through part of the 2025 budget without a vote.
Use of article 49.3 gives opposition members in the chamber 48 hours to file a motion de censure (vote of no confidence) against the government. Both the left and far-right filed motions on Monday (December 2) evening.
Mr Barnier's government does not have an outright majority in parliament and faces staunch opposition from the left-wing alliance of the Nouveau Front Populaire, which won the parliamentary elections in July.
Neither does he have support from the largest party in parliament, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN).
The vote of no confidence requires the support of a majority of MPs (289) and, if successful, would force Mr Barnier’s government to resign.
Readings of both votes of no confidence motions will take place from 16:00 on Wednesday (December 4), with votes taking place around 19:00.
The far-right confirmed they will vote alongside the left in the motion brought forward by La France Insoumise however this morning Marine Le Pen criticised the party for attacking the far-right in its text.
"Can we wonder about the NFP's real desire to see this vote of no confidence pass? Because as a general rule when you present a motion of censure and you want it to be passed, you avoid insulting those who are going to vote for it," she said outside the Assemblée nationale this morning.
Cross-party support for measure
Left-wing MPs from La France Insoumise previously stated they would file a vote of no confidence after any use of article 49.3 with most if not all left-wing MPs backing the vote.
The RN announced it would support the measure brought forward by the left and also look to file its own motion.
The motion de censure will succeed if it is indeed supported by both the RN and La France Insoumise.
Why will the RN support a vote of no confidence?
The RN is not officially backing the government as part of a coalition but its support has been fundamental.
As the largest single party in parliament, the RN was hoping that the threat of lending support to a vote of no confidence from the left would allow it to influence the government’s bills including the 2025 budget.
Read more: Why far right support is key to whether Michel Barnier stays as French PM
However, the RN vehemently opposed the budget brought forward by Mr Barnier, and introduced a series of ‘red lines’ within the bill that prevented them from voting in favour of it.
These included taxes on electricity consumption, medical aid schemes for undocumented migrants on low pay, and the end of some medical reimbursements, all of which were altered by Barnier’s government in an attempt to regain support.
Further red lines including on pension indexing were seemingly not addressed, leading RN leaders Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella to confirm RN MPs will join the left in voting against the government.
Read more: Euro and French stocks fall as Michel Barnier’s government faces collapse
What happens next?
Without parliamentary support for its 2025 budget, the government would have to use article 49.3 several times to pass the bill in full.
Opponents could therefore use a motion de censure every time this happens.
The left has indeed confirmed it will file a motion each time until the government falls.
However, a vote of no confidence may well topple the government within the next 48 hours.
If this happens President Emmanuel Macron will need to find a new prime minister.
His options will be limited, however, as MPs are unlikely to agree on any coalition – as was seen in the summer – and it seems mathematically impossible for any group to sustain a parliamentary majority and prevent future votes of no confidence.
Mr Macron may try to form a technocratic government made up of civil servants but this would fail to address a fractured Assemblée nationale that disagrees greatly on the budget.
There will undoubtedly be calls for Mr Macron to resign however this is not a constitutional requirement.
Prime Minister Michel Barnier will address the nation via the 20 heures news bulletin on TF1 and France 2 on September 3.
