Why and when is the French prime minister at risk of losing his job?

Continuing political disagreements persist over France’s 2025 budget, particularly in the lower chamber of the Assemblée nationale, whose MPs are roughly split into thirds between the left, centre, and far-right. It means the budget is unlikely to pass via a traditional vote. 

Prime Minister Michel Barnier and his government seem to date unable to convince either left-wing MPs under the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) group or from the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party to vote for the budget they have put forward. This is despite many alterations included by both MPs and Senators. 

It looks increasingly probable therefore that the budget will be forced through parliament without a vote, using a controversial mechanism known as ‘article 49.3’. 

Mr Barnier explicitly referenced the use of this in interviews earlier this month. 

Read more: France’s 2025 budget will ‘probably’ be forced through without vote, says PM

The use of ‘article 49.3’ opens up the government to a vote of no confidence (motion de censure) which could pose a problem for Mr Barnier as he does not command a majority in the Assemblée nationale. 

Read more: Explainer: what is France’s article 49.3?

A final vote on the Social Security budget is scheduled in the Assemblée nationale for Monday (December 2). This is thought all but certain to fail, leading Mr Barnier to enforce article 49.3.

MPs have 48 hours after this to table a motion of no confidence with the far-left La France Insoumise - the largest party in the NFP – saying they have already drafted the document. 

Would a vote of no confidence pass?

The threat of a motion de censure has been hanging over Mr Barnier since his government was appointed as the number of MPs from centrist and right-wing groups supporting him are outnumbered by opposition MPs. 

Read more: Explained: What is a motion de censure in French politics?

The left-wing NFP alliance has always said they would vote against the government in any vote of no confidence. The NFP has already brought a motion of this kind against Mr Barnier earlier in the autumn which failed. 

The far-right said they would give Mr Barnier time to ‘prove himself’ at the helm. However continual disagreements over the budget has resulted in the party announcing an intention to vote against the government in a motion of no confidence, including one triggered by the use of article 49.3. 

Far-right MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy confirmed yesterday in a press conference that RN MPs would vote in favour of a motion of no confidence against Mr Barnier, including one brought forward by the left.

Other than during the pension reform debates the left and far-right have not recently voted together on such a motion due to ideological differences.

Former president and current MP François Hollande confirmed today that he would vote against the government in a motion de censure. 

If all do vote this way it is likely that a motion of no confidence against the government will pass as these groups make up around two-thirds of the seats held by MPs. 

The only way for the government to avoid such a motion is to make changes to the budget which are significant enough to convince one of these groups of MPs to vote in its favour. 

Finance Minister Antoine Armand said today (November 28) that the government will seek to amend the budget to gain political support and avoid the risk of a vote of no confidence.

The vote on December 2 is the just the first of many measures in which a budgetary measure will be put to vote in the Assemblée nationale. Each and any failure and subsequent use of article 49.3 opens up an opportunity for a motion of no confidence.

What happens if a vote of no confidence passes? 

A successful motion of no confidence is likely to result in political chaos as Mr Barnier and his government must resign, making Mr Barnier the shortest-serving prime minister in the Fifth Republic.

This would lead to a caretaker government, unable to introduce any laws and strictly limited to dealing with the day-to-day running of the country, as the government was this summer after its resignation.

It would also still leave a budget needing to be passed before December 31 to ensure it is in place for 2025.

A successful motion of no confidence would effectively paralyse the government until June 2025, the earliest point that next elections for the Assemblée nationale (MPs) can legally be held.

Following Mr Barnier’s resignation President Emmanuel Macron would need to appoint a new government. 

He could reappoint Michel Barnier and his cabinet again – there are no rules against this – however there would be a great risk that it would be immediately deposed once more by a new motion of no confidence. 

The president could also attempt to form a new government. However realistically the only way to create a functioning cabinet that would not lose any subsequent vote of no confidence would probably require major players to agree to a type of ‘national government’ featuring all groups and parties.

President Macron could also appoint a ‘technocratic’ government - one made up of experts - most recently seen in Italy under Mario Draghi. 

This would have the advantage of being ‘above’ political lines with members mostly drawn from the civil service and public functions, giving expertise in their fields to present a new, emergency budget. 

Will the president resign?

Unlike a motion of impeachment against the president, such as that which left-wing MPs symbolically introduced earlier this year, a motion of no confidence only requires a majority of MPs to pass, and not the Senate. 

Read more: Macron impeachment proposal rejected by French parliament

A majority of French people would like to see Mr Macron step down if Mr Barnier’s government loses a vote of no confidence, according to a recent poll held on behalf of BFMTV. 

Mr Macron, however, stated after July’s legislative elections he would not resign until the end of his mandate in 2027. Should he resign, the head of the Senate will become acting president and new presidential elections would have to be held within 35 days.