Why do more people in France die on January 3 than any other day?

More people in France, statistically, die on January 3 than on any other single day, figures show, in a phenomenon that has been happening for the past 20 years. 

There are 1,900 deaths on January 3, on average, in comparison to 1,600 per day across a ‘normal’ period, show figures from national statistics bureau INSEE. The excess mortality rate (when compared with the previous month) is around 20% for men, and slightly less for women.

Mortality per day peaks in the winter months and dips below average in summer, the data shows. For example, August 15 is statistically the least deadly day of the year, with an average of 1,410 deaths. Around 48,100 people died in August 2024, compared with 63,100 in January, INSEE said.

There are also fewer deaths on public holidays, mainly because fewer people are admitted to hospital and fewer operations take place. For example, Christmas Day (December 25) has a 2% lower mortality rate than the three days before or after.

“In the countries of the northern hemisphere, all-cause mortality peaks at the beginning of January,” said Dr Vincent Pradeau, president national cardiologist union Syndicat national des cardiologues to BFMTV. 

He suggested some reasons for the phenomenon despite “no hypothesis being formally demonstrated”. 

The end of the festive season

Those towards the end of their lives may have managed to ‘hold on’ until the end of the festive season, having spent their final days with family.

“The desire to spend the festive period with loved ones, and to reach a new year, could delay the death of people at the end of their lives,” said INSEE.

Restart in surgeries

Hospitals and surgical departments are back and operational after the festive break, with a natural rise in complications that can arise from surgery. 

Seasonal viruses

The months of December, January and February see excess mortality of 9%, 14% and 12% respectively. This is mainly due to seasonal viruses which spread more easily in colder weather.

The cold can also have other negative effects: “It is cold, which forces the heart to pump harder and faster, leading to vasoconstriction and an increase in blood pressure,” said Dr Pradeau.

Read also: Flu epidemic hits all of mainland France 

End of year excess

“We move less and we eat more fatty and salty foods, which are risk factors for cardiac issues,” said Dr Pradeau, and eating more is also associated with higher alcohol consumption.

“It's a fact that alcohol increases heart rhythm disorders, particularly atrial fibrillation which can lead to the formation of blood clots,” he said.

Read also: Yes, some French people really do have 13 desserts for Christmas 

Delays in going to the doctor

Many people delay going to the doctor for issues over the festive season which leads to an uptick in January.

“It does not matter whether it is December 25 or 31, you should still consult a doctor [if you need to],” said Dr Pradeau. “This is what I call the January 2 syndrome. People with symptoms put off seeking medical attention so as not to spoil the festive season.”

He recognised that many healthcare facilities have interim or skeleton care during the holiday season, which can also make it more difficult to see a practitioner.

“But you don't just ignore a sudden loss of vision in one eye, of speech or of the use of an arm,” he states, referring to the emergency warning signs of stroke or other serious issue.

“If you have symptoms, consult a doctor.”

Read also: 112, 15, 17: Do you know the emergency numbers to use in France? 

In case of serious symptoms at any time - including chest pains, palpitations, loss of breath or difficulty breathing, or sudden troubles with speech or sight - call:

• 18 for emergencies (sapeurs-pompiers, first responders to critical medical emergencies)

• 15 for the SAMU ambulance service

You can also call:

• 17 or the police or gendarmerie

• 112 (Europe-wide emergency number)

• 114: Emergency number for people with hearing difficulties