France finally has a new prime minister, however the support of far-right MPs is now crucial in determining whether Michel Barnier will stay in the position after the left confirmed its plan for vote of no-confidence in him.
Mr Barnier was handed the role after nearly two weeks of meetings and negotiations between President Emmanuel Macron and politicians from three major political alliances as well as several outsiders, including one former teacher.
Read more: Michel Barnier is named as France's new prime minister
Mr Barnier, who is a right-wing leaning politician, now has the unenviable task of attempting to form a government under a centrist president and a deeply divided Assemblée nationale.
The leader of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, has already put a dent in hopes of a wider ‘republican’ coalition of centre-left and right-wing MPs after he ruled out the possibility of Socialists joining the government.
Does the far right hold the key to power in France?
The task of forming a government is made more difficult by the strong presence of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies.
Despite coming third overall in the legislative elections, their 142 seats makes them a major voting block that must be appeased if the Barnier government is to survive.
Whilst the left-wing alliance of the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) has already stated its intention to propose – or support – motions of no confidence against any prime minister appointed without their approval, whether the RN will do the same is unclear.
The NFP won the most seats (189) in the July 7 election, but would have needed 289 seats to enjoy an absolute majority that could propose a stable government.
Consequently, the alliance’s proposed prime ministerial candidate, Lucie Castets, was not chosen by President Macron.
Neither does the NFP have enough seats to force a vote of no confidence through parliament.
However, a motion backed by both NFP and RN politicians would have more than enough votes to instantly topple a government – something Mr Macron is desperate to avoid.
The far right now have the power to institute a motion of no confidence at any point, knowing it will pass provided the NFP keeps to its word.
The RN may hold off on doing so, waiting until an opportune moment which would increase their chances of profiting from the chaos.
This could include waiting until new legislative elections can be held (in June 2025 - no sooner than one year after the last elections were called) or during a time of political gridlock, if the new government cannot find enough MPs to vote in favour of new legislation.
However, it can use the threat of a motion of no confidence to gain influence over the new government’s decisions.
Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, said the party would ‘judge [Barnier’s] general policy speech, his budgetary decisions and his actions on the evidence,” before committing to a motion of no confidence.
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Was Macron ‘forced’ to pick a right-wing candidate?
The president reportedly had numerous meetings with Marine Le Pen, the RN’s former president and parliamentary leader, to determine which candidates would be acceptable for the far right.
On September 2, Socialist president François Hollande’s former prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, was widely touted to return to the role.
However, he was overtaken in the following days as the rumour mill claimed Xavier Bertrand of the right-wing Républicains would be Mr Macron’s choice.
Both candidates were ultimately set aside as neither appeared capable of garnering the support of the RN, unlike Mr Barnier.
“Barnier appears at least to meet one of the criteria we had demanded, which was to have someone who would respect different political forces and be able to speak with the RN,” Le Pen said shortly after the announcement.
“That will be useful, as compromises will be needed to solve the budget situation.”
“We will be paying close attention to the project that he will put forward, and ensure that the aspirations of our voters, who represent a third of the French population, are heard and respected,” she added.
The far right may also influence new legislation
In addition to the ever-present threat of a vote of no confidence, Mr Barnier may require the votes of far-right MPs to pass certain policies.
The combined votes of President Macron’s centrist group, the right-wing Républicains, and the other various independent centrist and right-wing MPs still fall short of the 289 seats required for an absolute majority.
The new government will have to look either towards the left or the far-right to gain support on policies.
There were hopes that the Socialist Party and Greens may split and join a governing coalition, but with the NFP seemingly remaining a single cohesive unit in total opposition to the government, movement towards the RN is looking more likely.
To gain their support, concessions to the party may be provided in such legislation.
This has led not only the left, but some centrists, to criticise the decision, accusing the president of surrendering to the far right.
As recently as the July 7 parliamentary elections, one recurrent theme of French politics is the front républicain, whereby the traditional parties ally to prevent the far-right from coming to power.
An unnamed MP from Mr Macron’s camp (quoted in Politico) said the appointment of Barnier did not adhere to this republican tradition, potentially opening the doors of power to the far right
Read more: Michel Barnier: election echoes Brexit, French should learn from it
