New prime minister Michel Barnier is to face his first vote of no confidence in the Assemblée nationale today (October 8), submitted by the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) left-wing alliance.
It is expected to be the first of many such motions that Mr Barnier will have to defend as he is harangued from the left (and potentially right) for policy decisions.
Today's motion is thought not to have any chance of passing as a majority of MPs in the Assemblée nationale need to vote in favour – at least 289 of the 577 in the chamber.
The NFP can only muster 193 votes for the motion, with perhaps a handful more from independent leftists. This leaves them far short of a majority.
This itself is largely the reason the NFP's prime ministerial candidate was not selected by President Macron to assume the role after this summer’s legislative elections.
Read more: President Macron rejects left-wing coalition's nomination for French PM
What is a motion of no confidence?
A motion of no confidence (motion de censure) is a vote against the actions of the prime minister and his government.
It can be tabled by any MP in the Assemblée nationale, and needs to be signed by one-tenth of MPs to be brought to debate.
Unlike a vote to impeach the president, which requires support from both the Senate and Assemblée nationale, a motion of no confidence only requires an absolute majority of MPs in the chamber to vote in favour.
Such a vote against current president Emmanuel Macron, also filed by some members of the NFP, recently failed.
Read more: Macron impeachment proposal rejected by French parliament
If passed, a motion of no confidence sees the prime minister and government dismissed, forcing the president to appoint a new prime minister.
There is no limit on the number of motions a prime minister can face, nor on the number of prime ministers that can be dismissed this way.
Traditionally, motions of no confidence are a check on the balance of power of a prime minister.
Generally, the prime minister belongs to a party with an absolute majority, meaning members of the president’s party would need to vote against the government for the motion to pass, more likely if the prime minister is accused of corruption or of not following the party’s manifesto.
However, in cases where the government only holds a relative majority (the most seats, but not more than 50%), it could theoretically be defeated by such a motion, if enough other MPs vote against them.
Such a vote almost passed during the pension reforms in 2023, which would have toppled the government of Elisabeth Borne, however right-wing Les Républicains MPs did not vote against the government.
Read more: Explained: What is a motion de censure in French politics?
Not supported by the far-right
In the current make-up of the political chamber, far-right MPs under the Rassemblement National (RN) could easily vote in favour of such a motion and topple the government, plunging France into further political chaos.
This is something they are well aware of, and can use this position against French President Emmanuel Macron to influence policy choices, including who he nominated as prime minister.
The RN has confirmed that for now at least it will not back any such motion.
“It is only by your actions that we will judge you and, unlike others, never on the basis of childish posturing... More than ever, we intend to be a force for construction,” said RN stalwart Marine Le Pen last week.
Read more: Marine Le Pen’s trial for misuse of EU funds starts in Paris
Why is the motion being brought forward?
If the motion is not going to pass, why is the left bringing it forward?
In short, it is a punitive decision, designed to frustrate the prime minister and his new cabinet.
This afternoon’s proceedings in the chamber will be spent debating the motion, allowing the NFP to attack the government – expected to focus on new policies announced by the prime minister in his general policy speech last Tuesday.
Included on the list against the “political orientation of the Barnier government” is the refusal to overturn last year’s pension reforms and the the announcement of budget cuts, designed to save tens of billions of euros over the coming years.
Read more: Immigration and taxes dominate Prime Minister Barnier’s policy speech
Secondly, it is another protest against the way Mr Barnier was appointed.
The left has been in a furore since the president’s refusal to appoint its candidate – Lucie Castets – to the role, which they argue should have been the automatic choice as the NFP were the largest party.
However, the new government – which does not maintain an absolute majority in the Assemblée nationale – has not officially had a vote to be accepted in the chamber.
“The Prime Minister has not asked for a vote of confidence. We are therefore organising a vote of no confidence,” said Boris Vallaud, Chairman of the Socialist Group to Le Figaro.
Further such motions are probable throughout Mr Barnier’s tenure which, even if they have little to no chance of posting, the NFP believes will highlight the issues of his administration.
