French property prices: which areas show rises and which falls?
September will be a critical month for the market, say notaires
Property prices have begun to rise in some areas, but the market remains fragmented
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The French property market appears to be stabilising after nearly two years of decline, with prices in several areas now falling less or beginning to rise.
This mostly applies to cities in central and eastern France, as well as smaller coastal towns in the north and west. Some areas in the south are also seeing price rise.
The information comes from the latest notaire data, which is the most accurate source of information on property sales in France as notaires handle all property sales.
The information, released quarterly, covers sales of all non-new build properties in France (both flats and houses), dating back to two quarters before publication.
Changes between the final quarter of 2023 and first quarter of 2024 showed only a small quarterly drop in prices.
Notaires also give preliminary data for more recent transactions, covering up to the beginning of August 2024, used to predict upcoming market trends.
They believe September will be a pivotal time for France’s property market, as a lack of incentives for buyers may cause prices to fall again,causing the market to slump.
Price falls easing, giving hope to sellers
While property prices have been on the decline for two years, there are signs this trend may be slowing.
The year-on-year change in price of non-new-build properties (flats and houses) fell for the third consecutive quarter in early 2024.
Property prices saw a 5.2% decrease in the first quarter of 2023-2024 compared to 2022-2023.
However, the pace of decline is expected to ease and projections suggest a 4.8% drop year-on-year by August 2024.
The national price drop for all types of properties in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the final quarter of 2023 was 1.6%, the latest notaire data confirms.
This implies a general slowdown in falling prices, and that more areas are seeing prices begin to rise at local level, although this is somewhat counteracted nationally by larger falls in some cities such as Paris.
Some areas perennially resistant to price drops
Some coastal towns and resorts, popular with second-home owners, are continuing to buck any downward trend.
Areas in the north and west of France including Dunkirk, Dieppe, Saint-Malo, Pornic, Trouville-sur-Mer and Cherbourg all saw sale price increases in March 2024 compared to March 2023.
Data for more recent months is still preliminary so is not broken down individually for all cities but several locations have been confirmed as seeing price rises year-on-year in January 2024.
The largest city to see an increase is Nice, where the price per m² of flats rose by 1%. Flat prices also went up in Corse-du-Sud, as well as in Bourges, Strasbourg, and Amiens.
House price increases between the first quarter of 2023 - 2024 compared to the same quarter of 2022- 2023 were also recorded in cities including Chartres, Orléans and Dijon. Montauban in the south saw an increase of 4.6%, the largest recorded in mainland France.
The island of Guadeloupe saw house prices increase by 16% in this time.
Notaires have detailed a list of 10 key points – financial, legal, and technical – which they believe will help strengthen the market and help it bounce back. They can be found in a PDF published here.
What about this autumn - what is expected?
The change in the market follows the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to cut interest rates in June, following nine months without change.
The cut, spurred by an ease in inflation, has positively impacted the sector and further or sustained drops would probably help to reignite demand in the housing market.
However, the ECB is expected to adopt a cautious approach for further rate cuts for the rest of the year.
The political instability following the French elections and the continuing lack of a feasible majority in the Assemblée nationale is also expected to have a negative impact.
Read more: Far-left threaten to impeach Macron for ‘refusal to act on legislative results’
A lack of movement in the sector may see prices stagnate or even fall as those owners keen to sell will have to reduce their asking price.
If this is the case, a rise in either prices or the number of potential buyers in the remainder of the year is unlikely.
Read more: Mortgage rates in France heading towards 3%
