This summer, France almost fell into the hands of the far right.
The Rassemblement National (RN), successor party to the overtly xenophobic and racist Front National, was triumphant in the elections for the European Parliament, sending a shudder through the political establishment.
Read more: Far right win French EU elections: how did your area of France vote?
In the run-up to the election for the Assemblée nationale, the party seemed to be heading for a majority that would enable it to form a government and rule as it pleased.
That did not happen, but only because an alliance of almost all other parties formed to keep the RN from power.
The party’s leaders, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, were disappointed but described the result as a temporary setback.
The RN massively increased its share of the popular vote, they pointed out, and in the presidential election of 2027, they hope to be victorious.
Does the far right represent French values?
Why, the world has been asking, would the nation of fraternity and the Enlightenment embrace the RN?
The far-right party not only proposes increased public spending while simultaneously slashing taxes but, more importantly, seeks to impose an immoral and unworkable division between the “born French” and the “not-French-enough”; i.e. immigrants, and particularly those who are Muslim.
In part, what we are seeing is a global phenomenon of ultra-nationalistic populism, which offers simplistic solutions to complex problems in the name of patriotism.
This is occurring in many countries in response to the fracturing of society caused by globalisation.
The fragmentation of information and debate – each to his or her own social media feed – does not help an electorate think clearly.
But this does not fully explain the appeal of French demagogues, who claim to feel the people’s pain and know what to do about it.
The political class and the media in Paris – including visiting correspondents based in the capital – are baffled by the success of the RN largely because the party does not poll well in the big cities.
Why do rural areas vote for the far right?
Its heartlands are the north-west, north-east and above all the south-east (Provence). It is a movement that is strong in the provinces, especially in rural areas. It is in such places that we need to look for the causes and cures.
It may help to look at an example: my village in the south-west.
Ten years ago, the people here voted predominantly centre-left and it would have been unthinkable to vote for the extreme right.
Since then, many people have transferred their allegiance from the left to the RN without seeing any contradiction. In the recent elections, my seemingly tolerant community awarded a majority to the RN.
There are barely any immigrants in the village, let alone illegal ones, or asylum seekers; there are no Islamist ghettos.
There is no visible poverty that needs eradicating; no problems with law and order.
My neighbours do not expect closing the borders or giving preference in the housing market to true Frenchmen and women or restricting public jobs to proven patriots to resolve any of their grievances.
The RN may claim it has support for its key policies, but it has not.
Most people newly drawn to the RN are not stereotypical foreigner-haters. Far from it. They have other concerns.
“I’m not so worried about security or immigration,” one villager told me.
“The problem in the countryside is that we are forgotten by politicians of the main parties.
"Here, you need a car to get anywhere – they don't understand that it costs money to run – and we don't have the same level of services that they do in the big cities. This is almost a 'medical desert'. My doctor has retired and I can't find one that isn’t oversubscribed.”
A vote cast for the RN is not, for most of its newfound supporters, assent to a plausible, problem-solving, nation-unifying, carefully budgeted programme. That is not what is on offer in the party’s manifesto.
It is a protest at the way politics is done by politicians in Paris; at the behaviour of 'elitists' who seem to despise the provincial mentality.
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Is Macron to blame for the rise of the far right?
It is no coincidence that the RN has made gains during the reign of a president who appears to float above common society on a cloud of privilege and wealth.
He may believe himself to be a good listener, but he has gained a reputation as someone who is willing to impose his preferred, rational solutions on the little people in what is seen as an arrogant, patronising way.
While licking her wounds since the last presidential election, Marine Le Pen has been working skilfully in the shadows.
Her main achievement has been to detoxify (dé-diaboliser) her party to the point at which voters no longer regard it as different to any other party.
More than that, while the other parties have been divided and squabbling among themselves, she has presented the RN as the only viable alternative to Macronism. In short, she has made a RN government seem plausible in voters’ minds.
“They [the RN] can’t be any worse,” said a voter who had shifted from left to right since the last election.
“At least they will shake things up. We’re suffering now and we have nothing to lose. The left is always arguing and it will never get anything done.”
Where does France go from here? If the politicians in Paris get the message, there is still time for them to defuse tensions.
Otherwise, the RN will go on articulating every imaginable grievance and offering the irresistible emotion of hope of change for the better, even if it means devaluing the tolerant values of the republic and scapegoating a sector of society.
“It is no good telling people they are wrong to vote for the RN,” says the mayor of my village, himself a socialist.
“This is not a political problem but a cultural one. We have to offer something better. We need to transform the political culture of this country so no one feels they have been failed or haven’t been heard.”
